By Wamuyu Njeri
Two years ago, America was trading barbs with North Korea, making it sound like the two countries were on the verge of a war. In my analysis back then, I did not envision any situation that would lead US to go to war with North Korea, unless the US was ready to give up being a Super Power.
I predicted the US would end up having a ‘Gentleman Agreement” with North Korea, premised on North Korea stopping the shooting of missiles across the region. This (agreement) however, was in no way going to stop North Korea from nuclear arms. I also noted that if this ‘Gentleman Agreement” is agreed upon, the US would likely explore a war with Iran. My prediction has come true, given the recent developments pitting the US and Iran.
Will the US go to war with Iran?
We all know that the US doesn’t go to war to build democracy, promote freedoms, or enhance human rights; US wars are purely based on economic reasons and the need to remain the world’s only Super Power.
There have been reports that the US is exploring sending 120, 000 troops to Iran. This must be a joke, because I cannot fathom any military adviser thinking of sending 120,000 troops to start a war with Iran. The troops would be insufficient to wage a war against Iran due to its sheer size (which 4 times that of Iraq) coupled with its large population which is not only anti-US, but also more militarized. In addition, sending such a small force would not really overran Iran, it would rattle Iran enough to go full throttle and activate all its affiliates/ proxies across the Middle East to fight the US and their interests.
Of course, the Iranian military is not as advanced as the US military, but it’s a gross miscalculation to think a war with Iran would largely be won through military strikes. Iran would wage some military attacks, but they would wage an even larger asymmetrical war against the US with only one goal- to bring down the US and its moniker of “Super Power.”
I know many people might be thinking that bringing down Iran’s rulers is a win for the US. This would not be a win in any way; it would just be the beginning of the Iran war. You could look back to Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and realize bringing down leaders through military strikes is the easiest part compared to bringing these countries under US control and align them to the “Western Order.”
Assuming the US strikes Iran, what I see happening is Iran engulfing the entire Middle East with wars through their military and proxies, and strangling oil production in the Gulf. Countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar would cease or reduce oil production significantly. Oil scarcity would (likely) plunge the world into an immediate recession! Europe, a key US ally in times of war would be the most affected by the oil shortage and subsequent recession.
In times of such an economic recession, Iran would probably send millions of refugees to Europe triggering White Nationalists to revolt inside Europe due to the migration and the economic down turn. This revolt would in-turn weaken EU & NATO as some of Nationalist European countries would probably want to pull out of any agreements to take in the refugees, especially if hit hard by the recession.
The biggest winner if there is an internal revolt in Europe would be Russia, as they would be a more stable oil supplier and could negotiate oil guarantees to some European countries, and the result would be the sowing of more divide among EU countries. Eventually, some European counties may end up aligning themselves with Russia, as alliances based on interests and self-preservation begin to crop up.
The moment the US and the EU gets tied up in a war with Iran, the attendant strain would give countries like N. Korea an opportunity to build up even more nuclear weapons.
China would also use this conflict to strengthen their position in the world, both economically and militarily. Petrol Dollar would probably be dropped by countries like Venezuela who would go back to oil markets (by public demand) to cover the oil shortage. Granted that Venezuela would be more skeptical of the US, they may opt to start trading in alternative systems away from the US dollar.
In other words, the ‘War after War” would go on for years and this is what would fatigue the US as it would be impossible to control since the consequences would manifest around the world in different ways
In the final analysis, Iranian rulers would be gone, but the US would be left to deal with a multi-polar world system which will have pulled away from US leadership!
These are just a few scenarios that a war with Iran war would elicit, but without a doubt, the US would be overwhelmed by the consequences.
One of the most sobering thoughts when I look at the possibility of a US-Iran war is the realization that the US is still relying on 20th Century mindset of forcing countries to align with the Western Economic System through war! This mindset is outdated as it completely ignores the changes over time, as well as the social awakening arising from lessons dating back to the 1900s narrative of ‘civilizing’ other cultures through war. This old mentality will not work in the modern day!
We may not agree with China, but they have become more powerful, and more people are learning Mandarin without dropping a single bomb! This clearly shows there is a way to thrive as a World leader in economy engagement as opposed to waging war
I don’t foresee any sensible reason to force US to go into war Iran especially at this time. However, a misunderstanding, or should the current sanctions on Iran bite to a point where Iran feels an imminent total collapse of their country is inevitable, Iran would probably decide to go down with the US!